ON THE LOOKOUT
The WHO warns that a flu outbreak similar to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic could erupt anytime
GENEVA
The world could at any time be faced with a massive flu outbreak like those in 1918 or 1968 that killed tens of millions of people, the World Health Organization warned, urging countries to be prepared.
"History has told us that no one can stop a pandemic. The question is: when is it going to happen?" WHO spokesperson Margaret Chan said. "I don't think anybody has the answer to it. We have to be on the lookout any time, any day," she added.
Deadly avian influenza, which has killed 55 people in Asia since resurfacing in 2003, has the potential to become a major human pandemic if the virus were to mutate and allow human-to-human transmission, Chan said.
The H5N1 strain of bird flu, which has killed hundreds of thousands of birds, constitutes one of several "warnings from nature"--the first since 1968, according to Chan, Hong Kong's director of health from 1994 to 2003.
"We collectively, particularly national authorities, have to take a very conscientious decision: if you are given early signals and if you are not prepared, you have a very difficult case to answer if indeed it happens," she said. "Our experience is that if you are prepared for a pandemic, you get less impact in terms of mortality, morbidity, social and economic disruption."
Chan admitted that preparation for a possible flu pandemic could divert resources from other health emergencies like the fight against AIDS or polio, but said such measures would improve the tracking of life-threatening diseases.
Getting wider
After Indonesia last month announced human deaths from bird flu, and cases were reported in Siberian poultry, Chan warned that "the scope is getting wider and wider."
The WHO's greatest fear is that human influenza and bird flu could somehow combine to unleash a pandemic on the world.
"With winter coming, we need to enhance our vigilance," she said. She reminded countries struck by bird flu to limit contact between humans and live poultry, as well as contact between different species in live markets.
Such rules were implemented in Hong Kong when bird flu first appeared in 1997, and no cases--either in animals or humans--have been reported there since, Chan added.
The expert said the WHO was still awaiting samples taken from migratory birds in China, 6,000 of which have died in Qinghai province since May.
Chinese researchers believe the strain afflicting their birds could be even more deadly than the H5N1 strain.
"We have impressed upon them the importance of sharing these specimens. We will not give up our effort: we owe it to the world, it's a global health-security issue," Chan said.
Insufficient data
In May, the WHO lamented that data were insufficient to fully understand the bird-flu virus but added the governments of affected countries were not to blame for the situation.
"There is no refusal to share human samples by Vietnam or any country with avian-influenza cases," WHO press officer Peter Cordingley said. "What influenza experts have expressed concern about is the limited number of viruses derived from those samples. The yield of viruses has been very low for reasons yet to be elucidated," he added.
His statement followed a report in Nature that said anxious WHO specialists were complaining that local scientists and officials were hoarding samples and information.
The "refusal to share" means the WHO cannot say accurately whether the virus is mutating into a more dangerous form, Nature said.
The WHO, however, acknowledged that some "WHO staff contributed to" what it called "misimpressions caused" by the Nature report.
Vietnam, which has had 44 human avian-influenza cases since December 2004, has provided well over 100 human clinical samples this year, Cordingley said.
Nevertheless, scientists are unable to glean enough information to understand the working of the virus.
"In northern Vietnam, we have lots of people with very light infections or even no symptoms at all," Cordingley said. "When we take samples from these people, we can't produce a virus. The labs can't do this."
Asked whether the WHO could tell if the virus has mutated or not, Cordingley said: "We can't do enough tests. We need a real heavy set of data before drawing conclusions."
AFP
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