WARMING IMPACT
Climate change set to worsen health burden, spread diseases, says a United Nations report
BRUSSEL
Malaria, cholera, malnutrition, heatstroke, and pollen allergies are just a few of the health problems set to worsen because of global warming, according to a report prepared by UN climate experts. The report notes that climate change has already extended the range of mosquitoes and ticks, helped spread diarrheal diseases, boosted the length and location of pollen seasons, and pumped up the intensity of dangerous heat waves.
The 1,400-page document prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the top UN scientific authority on global warming, warns that in the coming decades, such problems are likely to amplify and for many people, hunger and poor nutrition will be added to the mix.
"Adverse health impacts will be greatest in low-income countries," it says. "Those at greater risk include, in all countries, the urban poor, the elderly and children, traditional societies, subsistence farmers, and coastal populations."
The report is part of the fourth assessment by the IPCC since it was founded in 1988 to inform policymakers about man-made climate change. It points out that human health can be affected in subtle and sometimes poorly perceptible ways by climate change.
For instance, if food production is hit by drought or flooding, that in turn affects nutrition-or may prompt a rural exodus that boosts the population of shanty towns, where overcrowding and communicable disease can be rife.
A study of the heat wave that struck western Europe in 2003 found that nearly a third of Switzerland's excess mortality came from ground-level ozone-the pollution caused by a reaction between sunlight and traffic exhausts, which can be dangerous for people with respiratory or cardiac problems.
In some cases, says the report, climate change may be positive. In northerly latitudes, winters will become shorter and milder, easing the risk to poor and elderly people of cold waves. But overall, the outcome will be "overwhelmingly negative," hitting most of all poor tropical countries with water stress, poor sanitation, and shaky medical infrastructure.
One study cited in the report projects that the number of people at risk of hunger in the Sahel country of Mali will roughly double, from 34 percent today to between 64 and 72 percent in the 2050s, if nothing is done to help the population adapt to the threat.
The report puts the spotlight on populations in these areas:
-
Coastal and low-lying areas. A quarter of the world's six billion people live within 100 kilometers distance and 100 meters elevation of the coastline. Depending on the levels of carbon pollution in the atmosphere, these areas are at risk from rising sea levels, more powerful storms, coastal flooding, damage to fisheries, and saltwater intrusion into freshwater resources. According to one estimate, nearly five percent of the population of Bangladesh could face inundation if temperatures rise two degrees centigrade, the sea level increases 12 inches, and monsoon rainfall rises 18 percent. This could increase to 57 percent of the population in a computer model of a high-range of a four-degree temperature increase, a 100-centimeter rise in sea level, and a 33-percent increase in precipitation.
-
Mountain regions. Glaciers are in rapid retreat in the Himalayas, Greenland, the European Alps, the Andes, and East Africa, causing for some populations the future risk of water insecurity. Nearly a quarter of China's population, for instance, lives in western regions where glacial melt provides the main water source in the dry season. A warmer climate will enable mosquitoes to live at altitudes that previously were too cold, while more extreme rainfall will boost the number of floods and landslides.
-
Polar regions. Indigenous peoples who comprise roughly 10 percent of the circumpolar population are "particularly vulnerable" to climate change, both in threats to their habitat and their lifestyle. Warmer temperatures will increase the range of disease-bearing wildlife and badly affect traditional nutrition because of changes in animal migration and distribution.
M AFP
|
